Risk Analysis Summary
The data inputs/outputs for the Baseline 95% Cost Estimate, the 95% Submittal Risk Analysis and the Post-Bid Risk Model are shown in Table 1 below.
The Skew of 0.3 on the 95% Submittal Risk Analysis shows that the risk team felt that costs could grow, whereas the Post-Bid Risk Model with a Skew of 0.1 reflects a probability distribution which is nearly symmetrical around the vertical axis. The Kurtosis of the 95% Design Risk Analysis is 2.8 vs -0.3 for the Post-Bid Risk Model. This reflects the sharper, more pointed vertical distribution of the 95% Submittal Risk Analysis.
Constructability/Risk teams are not always informed of the bid results, but the findings of this example yield key lessons learned for future risk studies, and include the following.
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